Skill is simply [talent] * [hard work]. can be modified be having a good coach, but without talent and hard work you cannot get good at anything.

If she wins, it'll be so bad. Think about what it actually means for her to win. Sure, she's a hard worker, but she literally has never had the opportunity to do that particular technique before (not properly, anyways). If she wins, it will be because she literally did it correctly on her first try. It will either be explained as luck or skill. It almost certainly won't be explained as luck. It was her skill that allowed her to win.

Where did that skill come from? Given that this is literally the first time she has done this, it will have to be because of natural skill. This is like with the captain and that rival. Hard work doesn't amount to jack crap if your opponent is naturally skilled. To end on a repeat of that message...ugh.

aaauuuuugh that cliffhanger!